Aug/100
End of the beginning is coming… *Sigh*
Posted by: Bertkc01 on August 24, 2010.
Where to start…
A lot of times it’s very good for the soul to speak to the “enemy” fan. After hearing the nickname of Cleveland DH Travis Hafner I just had to know what was the deal with his nickname. I could understand it if it was “Prong”. Maybe he was a heavy metal fan or maybe he was really small, shrimp-like if you will, when he was a kid but “Pronk” is just weird. Sounds like a baseball bat covered in bubblewrap hitting a bed of nails. It’s poppy yet metalic sounding. So I built a bridge and reached out with an olive branch and asked an Indians what was up with his name.
I was informed that Pronk is a shortening of “Project Donkey” which is what his college coach called him because, now hold on for this, he could hit like a mule but ran like an ass. Okay well that’s not entirely right but he was big and strong but slow. I thought that was cool and I was a little jealous. Why don’t we have a “Pronk” on our team? We do. His initials are BB and he’s younger and does not have an injury laden career (knock on wood). He also hasn’t the power nor the years of wear and tear. Our Pronk is only 25. He is going to hit more homer’s and some say he’s miscast as number 3 or 4 hitter, should be a 6 or 7 hitter. If he was a 6 or 7 hitter his numbers would be just stellar but because of his last year and his slot in the order his numbers are a little dissappointing. Then again Cleveland’s Pronk has been underachieving too according to the Indians fan I spoke too. Hmmmmm.
Stating that I meditated on the future of this organization and dove into the minor league system to see what the future holds and, to quote 2001: A space oddessey, it’s full of stars! (Lame reference I know but I have a headache so leave me alone!) I see a great deal of awesomeness at first base. So in all that awesomeness we have a problem. Let’s say Kila works out and he starts murdering the ball later this year and early next. What do we do with Clint Robinson and Eric Hosmer? I know they are 2 – 3 years away but again if things go as planned what do we do? Do we trade for more minor leaguers or do we ask them to try and play other positions?
We have 3 very highly touted left handed startes and let’s assume 2 of them establish themselves as respectable major league players, who then becomes the odd man out on our current roster? We still don’t have that No. 2 hitter that isn’t Jason Kendall. Kendall wise old, grizzly, grey faced appeal that says “I’m going to teach you how to call a game” but I just REALLY don’t feel comfortable with his offensive numbers, his catching abilities and well just saying a 38 year old dude back there.
Of course AAA numbers are always sexier in the eyes of a basement dweller. The one thing we want to see is gawdy beautiful numbers. What we can’t see as the fan of said basement dwellers is the intangibles. The errors, both mental and physical. Apparently that is something you can’t teach a catcher they just kind of pick it up and that’s why we are currently stuck with Kendall at catcher. But does he have to hit no.2? I mean you got Blanco, Getz, Maeir… heck freeswinging Aviles. Betancourt is a demon in that no.9 or 8 spot so doesn’t fit a little better Kendall to be the other in alternating days?
If nothing else take all this with a grain of salt and know that we are in good hands. We will have leverage and talent galore to use and to trade for proven players very, very soon.
Aug/100
GWBH% and the Royals
Posted by: Bertkc01 on August 11, 2010.
Ever heard of VORP? Have we really gotten our heads around what OPS means? I think WHIP and ERA determine the Cy Young now not wins or strikeouts. Let’s face it we just keep thinking of new numbers to make the game more interesting. Hell they won’t let us have instant replay so why not?
In pure sport I submit to you another dumb equation to possibly explain our lack of clutch hitting. Please read the following in jest.
Oh great reader I stand before you befuddled. For 2 reasons my befuddlement has reached the highest level since the “steroid era”.
1.)The Royals are in fact putting the prospects in play that we all have been gawking over for some time. Alex, Kila, Bullington and Betemit were all at AAA for a substantial time before arriving and we know they’re potential. We all saw they’re stats and were screaming for Dayton Moore to start bringing up this hot, young talent. (Not another way of saying hot chick. These are highly regarded, highly performing young guys that we want to see play.) Yet at this moment after a west coast roadtrip we have gone 2 – 7. Befuddling.
2.)If it were not for the 7-1 loss to Seattle we can say that about 6 of the 7 games were lost by 2 runs or less. I think 6. Could be 5 but I’m not entirely sure. On top of that every game we lost we had one last at bat and, save for 3 of the 7 losses, we were easily one big hit away winning the game. Serious befuddlement.
It is for this reason I propose yet one more meaningless stat to help us understand what the heck is going on with the Royals. Can it truly be meaningless? Yes. Baseball has a way of putting importance on things that shouldn’t matter (or does it?).
Here’s the stats I shall use to calculate a teams ability to get the Game Winning Base Hit (GWBH%):
Wins, Slugging %, games played, RBI’s and what the hell let’s try and put the teams ERA into it (what good is all runs if your pitching can’t keep it right?).
Royals have a .392 Slugging %, won 47 games, 445 RBI’s so far in a 114 games played. They also have 5.01 ERA (2nd worst in AL).
Okay let’s call the GWBH% a means of calculating the odds a team has of hitting the last RBI in the game. Sooo….
1.) First step of equation: RBI’s/game
445 RBI’s /114 games = 3.905 RBI’s/game
Sooo… with a .392 Slug we have 3.905 RPG which equates to 47 wins. Since there is a team ERA of 5.01 we can easily see why a team might be in last place. Since we can’t score a fraction of a run I’ve decided to round up to 4 RPG. Divide this by Slug %.
2.) Step 2. A weird answer.
.392 slug/4 rpg = .098 slug/rpg… what does the .098 mean? It’s small and since baseball is a game of inches day in and day out we have to extrapolate this number on a season basis. Soooo…
.098 slug/rpg * 114 games = 11.72 slug/rpg/game
Just too add another layer of voodoo let’s make it a percentage. At 11.72%. Thus an 11.72% chance the Royals will get the GWBH.
That means that 88.28% chance the Royals will give UP the GWBH. In the end it makes no sense but damnit doesn’t just feel like I’m onto something?
Aug/101
The trading block
Posted by: Bertkc01 on August 2, 2010.
Are we really upset that Podsednik got traded?
Are we really upset that Callaspo got traded?
I liked Guillen but we all know his problems and what’s coming for him…
This is clearing the way for the new wave.
Interesting stats I’ve been noticing:
The Royals have struck out the least in all the majors, have the 2nd most hits in the majors and 2nd highest batting average in all the majors.
18th in 2b’s and 10th in 3b’s. 9th in stolen bases.
11th in OBP. 18th in Slg.
29th in HR’s and 23rd in RBI’s.
Listening to O’s radio commentators they are drooling over Soria. He is recognized nationally as one of the better closers. Found out that Soria has a no trade clause to the Yankees and the Yankees only. Wow.
Versus last year the Royals have made a lot of improvements. Stolen bases and batting average are the biggest increase in standing. On base percentage increased to a respectable amount. A lot of that can be attributed to the players not panicing with the hitting approach of Kevin Seitzer firmly in place.
The biggest disappointment lays with the pitching staff. 2nd worst ERA and if the season ended today the Royals, again, would be receiving a top 5 pick. There are 3 other teams with the same record so I’m being extremely favorable on the ruling for the 5th pick.
Holland from Omaha was just called up. Didn’t pitch the 11th but he probably pitched a night ago so he needs the break. Fine I get it, it’s all good.
I don’t think ownership cracking open it’s wallet will fix what’s wrong with the Royals. Nope I am now convinced that the issue is more talent based. Bannister and Davies have no business starting but who else do we have? That’s a depth problem.
Blake Wood needs to fine tune his stuff and his walks aren’t just giving up runs but giving up games. Send him back down a level and see if Holland can fill that role. I think Farnsworth is actually going to be that guy soon. He’s changing speeds well and getting hitters out. Why not?
Guillen and Farnsworth have been disliked by the fans but KC has become a very bitter baseball town. We want to like guys and win. I predict that Guillen and Farnsworth will be a packaged deal to the White Sox for a 2B’er and relief pitcher. Oh! Yes, Guillen and Farnsworth will be boo’ed and they will beat us several times.
(Due to system errors I’m already wrong on that)
We need more power. I’m not talking Jacobs/Ankiel power. I’m talking All-Star power. Pujolianesque. We need another pitcher. I’m not talking Chen/Bannister either. I mean a stinkin’ pitcher. Don’t need a Greinke. We got one of them. Right now we have no starting pitchers at AAA. Lerew = middle reliever, Bullington = middle reliever, Chen = middle reliever and Hernandez and Mendoza = middle reliever. Expect to sign one in 2011 free agency.
Jul/100
First 1/2 evaluation and random thoughts
Posted by: Bertkc01 on July 14, 2010.
Passing thoughts on the Royals since the midway point (which isn’t the midway point but it’s like the Christmas break of baseball)
Hey our AAA, AA and High A minor league teams look awesome!
From a fan’s glance I’m gonna break down the first half of the season into 2 halves. Le’ts call them Yuni and Betancourt.
The Trey days (Betancourt):
Royals were error prone fools. THE BULLPEN. Should I even start? They couldn’t close a case on Usama Bin Laden. They worked walks like they were outs and they were the worst in baseball. If not statistcally then they were the best at deflating morality in baseball.
Offense: OBP and AVG. are among the best in baseball but (and it’s a big but) none of that matters when the defense is error prone and the walks (heard the saying “beware the 2 out walk” multiple times) are escalating to the point of embarrasement.
No play illustrates this better than when, on opening day, Robinson Tejeda came in and gave up a lead by way of Johny Damon. I listen to the radio. I heard the frothing. We started off 0-1.
Since Hillman’s firing (Yuni):
The Royals are at .500.
The Royals seem to finally have figured it out. Good D and good pitching will go along way to overcoming a lack of a slugger. A Kila Kai’ahue and Jose Guillen and Ankiel filled line up (with an Alex Gordon twist) would resolve this issue I think but maybe Gordon needs to work on his approach a bit. Or maybe we should trade him? Seriously though we got Parraz, Dyson and Robinson lined up to accept the succesor’s job so why not? That means we got Podsednik and Gordon to trade. Wow, what would you give for that? Pods as CF and Gordon as LF. Not so much what but who would trade for that? It feels like a National league team would want that. What team in the NL needs a better outfield? How about the Cubs or the Astros? Anyone got any ideas?
The high point of the year? Beating Strasburg and kick starting a 10-3 pace for 13 games before being swept by the White Sox. God I hate the White Sox.
2nd
Since Guillen got gimpy on us who will they have play his spot? It appears Betemit is the answer. On top of that Moustakas was just moved to AAA and Hosmer is projected to go to AA (See last article for my secret “I told ya so” idea). Where it not for Betemit we would see KK in the majors and my idea would be in full fruition sigh. Alas it was not yet ment to be. KK I will see you in 2011. sniff, sniff
Here’s hoping we stay even now and make our late year run we made like we did last 2 years with both KK, Moustakas and Gordon stepping onto the podium’s we have waiting for them.
So I want to open it up for next article: Should I write about the Royals playing culture where I point out the Royals players brought up in the system are playing better than free agents? Or should I write about the job Dayton Moore has done? Just a thought.
Jul/100
A New Moon! (or) Growing up Royal! (or) Why we have no phenom’s!
Posted by: Bertkc01 on July 6, 2010.
The future of Kansas City is growing to a crescendo. To anyone that has access to mlb.com or listens to Royals game you can see the development of the farm system. I never in my life have spent so much time following so many teams as I have following the Royals minor league system. That’s how desperate I have become as a fan. Losing seasons don’t sit well after a while and we begin to hope for a savior. No savior comes into place without the form of a need for rebellion. In this case it’s the draft.
I say the Royals farm system will climb because in the most recent years I’ve noticed a pattern in performance. Early picks that tend to take their time. Royals don’t like a Strasburg. Nothing wrong with that it’s just that when we pick we want to make sure the players comply with the batting philosophy and pitching philosophy and to be a dynasty you have to have guys that buy in.
Buy in to the Kevin Seitzer Philosophy on hitting and McClure Philosophy on hitting.
K Seitz philosophy is simple. Work the count. Work for your pitch and hit it up the middle. This leads to long AB with full counts and the starting pitchers being taken out early because they’ve been overworked and the bullpen (mainly one inning guys) open to multiple run scoring innings (View what we’ve done to Felix Hernandex, Strasburg and Wakefield). A walk is as good as a single and a strikeout is the worst thing you could do to help your TEAM. Team. It’s all about helping the next guy succeed. Butler works a walk so Guillen can work the pitcher for Callaspo. This philosophy is in full effect at NW Arkansas and would be in AAA Omaha if it weren’t for a lesser overall talent level. Seriously the Naturals are freaks at working this philosophy. You can tell the newer guys by their batting averages. 6 of the 9 batting lineup made the lineup the other 3 were promoted starting this year so they’re a year behind. It’s actually scary to think that if 2/3 of your guys buy in. Betancourt and Kendall and Callaspo are in the top 10 of hardest to strike out and we lead the Majors in hitting. We will revisit this analysis in the future but I will give you a chance to naysay on what I just said. Alliteration anyone?
The Bob McClure philosophy is maybe contrary to what other commentators have said but it’s a simple pitch to contact for ground ball philosophy with an 0-2 count go for the strike out.twist. The early season problem (and what may have gotten Trey Hillman fired) was the decision for the pitcher to do all pitching off the mound and on flat ground. I suppose the intent was to provide the pitchers with an extra boost of speed or confidence standing above it all with the mound but what we found was the bullpen was awful. Pitches we’re left over the plate and homerun’s ensued. The pitchers couldn’t hit their spots and they led the league in walks and had the worst ERA. Then a new manager comes in and says “No, throw off the mound for practice and warm up” and we are 2 games above .500 with that guy. Only time will tell if that was the right decision.
The point to all of this is don’t worry about a first rookie in the farm system. Look at them next year. These philosophies take time to assimilate to an athlete’s head.
Don’t worry about Crow or Colon. You’ll see their true selves next year.
Moustakas in 2009: BA .250
in 2010 (7/2010 ish) BA .358
Hosmer in 2009: BA .241
in 2010 (7/2010 ish) BA .350
Kila Ka’aihue 2009: BA .252
in 2010 (7/2010 ish) BA .313
Chris Dwyer 2009: ERA 4.15
in 2010 (7/2010 ish) ERA 2.99 (and promoted to Moustakas team(yes it is his team))
Do you believe yet?
Jun/101
Why you don’t want to trade DeJesus and other wonderful problems to have.
Posted by: Bertkc01 on June 28, 2010.
What are you people thinking about trading David DeJesus!? In what world is that a good idea? Who could replace him in our system? Remember the last time we departed with a great outfielder? The answer of course is “Which example do you want to use?” Trading Carlos Beltran who would play in the world series? Or Jermaine Dye who would help the White Sox win they’re first world series since the were the black sox? Or Johny Damon? Hall of Fame Johny Damon. Hero of Boston. Destroyer of Philly. Oh and did I mention a FUTURE HALL OF FAMER (He is and you know it. Don’t act like it isn’t going to happen.).
I personally would not like another rebuilding period to run any of our players out of town and what really needs to be done is, despite a recent 21 game hit streak, leading the team in HR, RBI and well slacking on the way to first. We need to discharge Guillen and make way for Kila in AAA and move Robinson from the Naturals to AAA (or move Gordon to first, there I said it, I said it and I’m not embarrased) and Hosmer to the Naturals and just set an example of how you get your teams ready for the future.
You don’t trade DeJesus. You just don’t. You offer to cover half of Guillen’s contract you get a pitcher and a shorstop who are close to major league ready or close to being close but you just don’t trade DeJesus. You don’t get rid of a guy who is putting himself in the teams record books because of defense and hits .330 and if you do you are fulfilling a stigma that has been attached to you by your fans as a cheap, lazy, greedy ball club that has no desire to win anything of significance again. Ever.
You don’t option Chen or Lerew to anywhere. Remember the end of 2008? Royals had a great bullpen with guys that were being called up from AAA or were from Dayton’s Atlanta rejects squad and we, as fans, we’re beginning we could win the division next year. Remember those guys? LEO FRIGGIN’ NUNEZ? Closer for the marlins anyone? Anyone? Ramon Martinez? Red Spx setup man anyone? Hello? Two words should forever scar and insult Royals ownership from 2009. Jacobs and Crisp. Sir Strike out and Mr. Owie Shoulder and oh we also inherited they’re ARBITRATION (scary soap opera pipe organ music here). We need to dump Davies or move him to the bullpen and he has no other option because he’s got 2 guys breathing down his neck for his job. When Hochevar comes back (not particularly excited for Meche and his new arm slot to be seen yet) he will move to the number 2 spot and we will begin to see the championship rotation take form. Greinke, Hochevar then Chen (holding it for Montgomery (AA) or Lamb (A) or whoever moves the fastest) then Lerew then Bannister. Bannister is pitching well but I really like seeing him on day games so he retains the five spot. So that’s the rotation that will announce to Major League Baseball that the Royals are no longer a joke. We can’t do that unless we tell Davies to start doing his job or go play for the Pirates. Harsh.
Sign DeJesus to the option and pay the man because he’s worth it. Sign him to a $21 million/3 year deal then let the baseball gods do what they may. Keep the guy here at least until 2012.
Davies goes to the bullpen or to the wolves. He sinks or swims. Suck it up and take it. He’ll always have a 2nd career in construction. Harsh.
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